Wednesday, March 05, 2008

US primaries prediction

Before the US primaries on March 4, when Obama was effectively leading the Democratic campaign, mass-media and statistics predicted defeat for Hillary Clinton, and even psychologists gave detailed explanations why she lost and what was wrong with her image.

I am not quite familiar with the complicated US system of delegates, superdelegates, caucuses, etc., nor am I interested in particular candidates, but when a member of “AngelicusMerlin” Yahoo group asked a horary question about the primaries on March 3, one day before the event, I was interested to try to predict it.

Here is the chart for the question “Will Obama win?”

I needed some background information to choose the right significator, because Obama was not the candidate of the person asking the question, so it was not clear whether Obama was signified by the ruler of ascendent or by the ruler of 10th house of the state power. Then I was told the Tony Rezko story which helped me to choose, because in the chart, 11th house has Mars heading its fall in Cancer: this made me think that Obama should be assigned to the ascendent in Leo (Obama is Leo, indeed, born on August 4) – Sun is peregrine in Pisces and exalts Venus, which rules 10th house of power.

The Moon is in detriment, void of course and heading Aquarius, sign of Sun’s detriment. In the mundane chart, Moon signifies people of the country. Being void of course and weak, it shows that the people are undecided, and when Moon comes to Aquarius, the people start dislike Sun, i.e. the person in question, Obama. Evil star Algol is culminating in the chart. All these indications show nothing like a victory. Moon void of course signifies no major change in the course of the events.

Therefore, yesterday, before the primaries of March 4, I wrote in AngelicusMerlin the following: “…probably no final decision right now, postponement till later primaries or the party conference in summer. I would understand these indications as Hillary getting more voices in the primaries this week to balance their current statistics”.

As we know today, March 5th, Hillary Clinton has revived her campaign with primary wins in three states. Her delegate score against Obama is 1,391 – 1,477, which is rather balanced now.


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